The political battle to win the Buganda vote is hotter than ever. Inter-Party Cooperation flag bearer Dr Kizza Besigye has already completed his tour of the region while the NRM party flag bearer, Mr Yoweri Museveni, who also started his campaign in Buganda, is expected to end in the region.
Four of the seven opposition candidates, each while delivering their maiden post-nomination message, dug deep to get Buganda on their side. They all extolled the kingdom as the heartbeat of Uganda’s politics and competed in honouring its king, the Kabaka, who under the current Constitution, is supposed to be apolitical.
The political significance of Buganda region in the forthcoming elections cannot be underrated. It is the region with the biggest number of voters and it also has the highest number of elite voters than any other region in the country.
It is also home to presidential candidates Ms Beti Olive Kamya of the Uganda Federal Alliance (UFA), Mr Jaberi Bidandi Ssali of People’s Progressive Party (PPP), Dr Abed Bwanika of the Peoples Development Party (PDP) and independent candidate, Mr Samuel Lubega.
Unique region
Buganda is a unique region because of the things it has been demanding from the central government among which is a federal system of governmence, the 9,000sq miles of land and abolition of the land law.
Kampala Central MP Erias Lukwago who has been instrumental in agitating for the return of Buganda properties said the Baganda will not vote individuals they perceive to be anti-Mengo establishment because they always pay special allegiance to their king.
“The people of Buganda will definitely listen to Mengo,” Mr Lukwago said, adding, “the current land tenure system, which was introduced by this government, is only intended to grab Buganda land and people know that Mengo opposed the Land Bill.
“Buganda is a more institutionalised society. The people know that the current political dynamics do not work in favour of their Kabaka and there is no way they will support this government which created a legal framework that is hostile to the Buganda interests,” Mr Lukwago said.
The recent drafting of the Kampala City Bill, was the latest in a string of confrontations between Mengo and the central government.
The resolution of the current feud over land, power and money in Buganda will depend primarily on Mr Museveni’s NRM party’s calculated gains and losses from pursuing a political agenda at odds with the desires of Mengo.
The height of the confrontation between Mr Museveni and Buganda Kingdom was seen during the September 2009 riot that left at least 28 Ugandans dead and more than 50 injured. This exposed the tension between State control and the ambitions of the traditional Buganda Kingdom.
This violence erupted after supporters of the king were angered by the alleged government’s blocking of their cultural leader from attending a youth ceremony in Kayunga District, where a section of the local community, the Banyara, is trying to break away from his rule.
Some political pundits believe that Mr Museveni has not been happy with Buganda Kingdom that looks like a government-in-waiting, a kind of an alternative centre of power with all the trappings of a political administration. It seems he was left with no alternative but to take action in an attempt to reverse this trend.
In what is seen as a calculated move to exploit tensions between Mengo and Mr Museveni, Dr Besigye has promised to grant federal to any region of the country that wishes to have it.
“The problem is when people start thinking that they should be given their rights by the State,” Dr Besigye said in an interview with The East African newspaper this week. “The Justice Odoki Commission, which gathered views across the country, found out that over 65 per cent of Ugandans wanted to be governed under a federal system of governance.
All that we are saying is that if power belongs to the people, then we shall implement the peoples’ will.
“There is nothing bold or unique about what we are saying needs to be done in the case of Buganda. Some people think that a federal system of governance is only needed by the people of Buganda but that is not the case.”
The IPC leader contends that the other issues of concern to Buganda relate to debts owed by the central government and properties still being held that the kingdom wants returned.
“These are very minor issues and are not contentious because if you have a debt, what is contentious about that? Nobody is saying the debt is not there, only that they are refusing to pay,” he said.
Dr Besigye, who is believed to enjoy a cordial relationship with the King of Buganda, hopes to capitalise on his new promises to sway Baganda voters away from NRM’s Museveni.
However, this will not come easy and Dr Besigye knows it. Mr Museveni’s strongholds have always been western and central Uganda. Support in these regions needs to be consolidated, especially considering that Mr Museveni’s support nationwide has been falling by around 10 per cent in each of the past presidential elections. Buganda has been the source of a large percentage of Mr Museveni’s votes, even if the Mengo establishment itself has supported the opposition.
In 2001, Mr Museveni won about 70 per cent of votes in Buganda, although this included the support of a large number of non-Baganda. By 2006, his support had decreased, largely as a result of the strong
Nevertheless, of the 168 sub-counties in which Baganda are the majority ethnic group (which does not include all the sub-counties in the region of Buganda, explained by the fact that there have been many migrants to the area), Mr Museveni won just over a million votes. Dr Besigye won 700,000.
Thus, in 2006, the Baganda provided Mr Museveni with nearly a quarter of the total votes he received countrywide.Presidential spokesman Tamale Mirundi whose relationship with Mengo has been as icy just like that of his boss, believes that Mr Museveni by large remains the most popular political figure in Buganda whose following cannot easily get destroyed by Mengo’s smear tactics.
Buganda Kingdom, Mr Mirundi argues, has little capacity to influence voting patterns, especially that of the poor Baganda, whose support for Mr Museveni has remained, is believed to be high.”
“The Buganda Kingdom made one serious mistake whose consequence they are still suffering,” Mr Mirundi said. “They tried to undermine political parties after their fall out with Milton Obote and when Mr Museveni came to power, they (kingdom) helped to entrench the NRM system, which they are now trying to fight.
“People cannot take them seriously. You cannot every year be celebrating the restoration of the kingdom by the president whom you are denying. People will not agree with you and that is why you have seen the local Baganda voting against Mengo’s positions.”
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